Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Flying Air Conditioners: A Minor Study in Risk Assessment

Hurricane Sandy is hurtling toward the East Coast and has already brought high winds and heavy flooding to the region. Will it also blow your air conditioner out of the window? Daniel Engber examined the evidence last August as Hurricane Irene approached, noting that while hurricane-force winds could damage ACs, removing them from windows is a virtually risk-free endeavor. His original piece is printed below.

window AC unit

Should you leave your AC in the window or take it out?

I've never appreciated advice from strangers, and I'm getting plenty of it. Email chain letters, mostly, forwarded from a guy in New Orleans or a girl from Galveston, someone who's lived through a few of these tropical storms in his or her day, and now deigns to provide a few hurricane tips for me and you and all the other friends-of-a-friend-of-a-friend on the Internet. I've been told to stay indoors (seems boring), tape my windows (seems futile), purchase gallons of bottled water (seems heavy), and remove the air-conditioning unit from my window (seems humid). I'm happy to ignore all these unwanted words of advice?that was my plan, at least?but the last did begin to nag at me Friday afternoon. I love my air conditioner; it's my very favorite appliance. Am I really at risk if I leave it untouched? Or, more awful to think about, could my A/C be in danger, too?

I checked online and found doomsayer-talk of air-conditioners flying out of windows, or shooting across bedroom floors, or becoming so damaged by the rain and wind that they no longer functioned. Yes, it would be a pain to uninstall the 81-pound unit?but maybe, just maybe, worth the effort.

Then came the announcement from the mayor, calming words before the storm: "Michael Bloomberg discouraged people from removing air-conditioning units," reported the New York Times' City Room blog on Friday, "saying any benefits could be easily be outweighed by units accidentally falling into apartments or out of the window."

Finally, an unambiguous message from someone I trust. The technocrats at City Hall had run the numbers?they'd placed risks and benefits side-by-side, activated the relevant statistical software, and determined that we'll all be better off if my A/C stays in the window and I stay on my couch.

One anxiety begets another, though. What numbers went into this municipal calculation, I wonder. How did the mayor work through the costs and benefits? Was he saying that the chance of an Irene-related air-conditioner accident was close to zero? Or did he mean to imply that the chance of an air-conditioner-removal accident was even higher?

It's not an idle question. I'm not planning to uninstall my dearly beloved LW1211ER this weekend, but summer's almost over. I'll be stowing the unit away in another two weeks, maybe three, and thousands more New Yorkers will do the same. Maybe it's tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands: We install and remove our window units every late spring and early fall. So what's the death toll from this yearly rhythm?

Mayor Bloomberg seems to presume that if we take out our units for Hurricane Irene, we'll be doubling the risk, whatever it is. (Another round of installations and removals would give us twice the opportunity to drop our appliances on babies and old people, I presume.) There are a number of flaws in this logic. First, it seems unlikely that many of those who removed their A/Cs for the storm would be inclined to reinstall them right after, less than a week before Labor Day. In that case, we'd have done little more than pushed the late-summer ritual of removal a few days earlier. Second, wouldn't the hours leading up to the arrival of Hurricane Irene provide the best, safest opportunity to do that yearly maintenance? How many people are going to be out on the street this afternoon, passing under my window as the storm clouds gather? With so few pedestrians below, won't the dangers be halved?

There's an even better reason to doubt the mayor's math, though. Despite a cottage industry in overcautious accoutrements?window netting and the like?the urban air-conditioner seems to pose only the barest danger to those on the sidewalk. A recent media survey conducted by the Village Voice found just a handful of falling-A/C incidents, and when the newspaper asked the Department of Buildings for comment, they were told that "accidents involving air conditioners are rare in New York City."

Sure, there was the 67-year-old man who was struck last year as he walked his shih tzu down Second Avenue. And the 24-year-old man battered by a unit in New Jersey. Back in 2006, a 51-year-old woman had her leg shattered, her pelvis broken, and her ribs fractured by a falling A/C. There have been some cases in other big cities, too?a "freak accident" near London's Waterloo Station, another hit in Chicago. But there isn't much evidence that these exceedingly rare events have much to do with the actual installation or removal of the units. A sloppy job might cause an appliance to fall eventually, I suppose, but so could a rotting window frame or a bolt of lightning.

Also interesting, if not quite to the point, is the fact that these air-conditioner tragedies are almost never fatal. The Voice couldn't find a single confirmed death in its survey. Even the New Jersey man, whose clobbering arrived from 15 stories above, seems to have weathered the insult just fine. (If anything, it's falling the other way that's the problem?like the mentally-handicapped 12-year-old boy who apparently dropped out of his bedroom window along with an air-conditioner in February 2007.) Somehow it doesn't kill you when a giant box of metal strikes you unexpectedly in the head. I find that comforting.

Which leaves me to assume that it's not really that dangerous to remove your air conditioner, this weekend or next weekend or the one after. The major costs in these cases, it seems, are the multimillion-dollar lawsuits that inevitably follow. That's why I've decided that if I leave my unit in place, and it's damaged in the storm, I'll be taking Bloomberg to the cleaners.

Source: http://feeds.slate.com/click.phdo?i=d4caefdc51962c934be92332aa99a342

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Blog Archive ? Lilyfield Christian Adoption and Foster Care ...


Lilyfield Christian Adoption and Foster Care is currently recruiting foster parents for infants. Through our contract with the state of Oklahoma, we provide licensed, Christian foster homes for infants in state custody due to child abuse or neglect. If you are interested in fostering, please call our office at 216-5240.

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Tags: job, Lilyfield Christian Adoption & Foster Care

Source: http://www.ccfsa.org/jobs/lilyfield-christian-adoption-and-foster-care-recruiting-foster-parents/

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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Breast-cancer checks save lives despite over diagnosis

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Chuck Berry: 'My singing days have passed'

By Rolling Stone

Recently,?Chuck Berry?made a rare move:?he gave an interview. Visiting Cleveland to accept the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame?s American Music Masters Award, the 86-year-old met with journalists at the museum?s offices before touring an exhibit celebrating his life.

Steve Snowden / Getty Images Contributor

Seated in the center of a conference table between friend Joe Edwards and his son Charles Berry Jr., wearing a captain's hat and a Rock and Roll Hall of Fame varsity jacket, Berry was humble, revealing and playful.

"Now let me make a statement," he said at the beginning. "After being before drums for 48 years, it has taken effect in the last four months and I have a strange hiccup that comes out every time I tell the truth." The room erupted in laughter.?

At one point,?Rolling Stone?asked Berry how far the country has come since the days he played segregated venues throughout the South. Berry paused for a moment.

"I never thought that a man with the qualities, features, and all that (President Obama) has, [could] be our President," he said. "My dad said, 'You may not live to see that day,' and I believed him. I thank God that I have." Berry stopped for several seconds while his eyes welled up. "Excuse me," he said.

The most moving moment came when Berry discussed his own future. Explaining that he doesn't hear well, Berry turned to his friend Edwards. "If you don?t mind, Joe, explaining [questions] to me, because I am hearing very little. I?m wondering about my future," he said, raising his finger. "That?s news!"

Berry was asked to expand. "Well, I?ll give you a little piece of poetry," he said. "Give you a song? I can?t do that. My singing days have passed. My voice is gone. My throat is worn. And my lungs are going fast.??I think that explains it."

St. Louis Post-Dispatch?writer Kevin C. Johnson argued that people still pay to see Berry monthly at St. Louis? Blueberry Hill.

"I?ll tell you what that is," Berry said. "They?re having a great time from memory. And I hope that I can continue to enhance their memory because it looks very dim, like I said, you know."

More from Rolling Stone:

Source: http://entertainment.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/30/14809638-chuck-berry-my-singing-days-have-passed?lite

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Social Media Monitoring: Tools and Services Overview

The topic of social media monitoring has grown up on large scale since few years.?Nevertheless, the understanding of which is often vague, since the requirements are constantly changing.?We shed light on the different scenarios and present the most important tools and services in this article.

socialmedia

If you follow the discussions on?social media?monitoring in recent times, one gets the impression of easy, social media monitoring campaign was mainly monitoring or controlling their own social media channels on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Google+. Given the fact that today many companies are even active in the social web and create their own content, which also requires the evaluation, however, caused many more demands on the social media monitoring.?This range of classic providers are facing new challenges.

On the other hand keep emerging new providers who specialize in the newly added topics.?We present the various social media analysis tools and bring order to the chaotic market in which we categorize the various providers.?It also deals with the question of what companies look for when choosing a provider and statements in which they should be suspicious.

What is Social Media Monitoring?

When?social media monitoring?are using crawlers to search various sources and the results delivered via an online dashboard or in the form of an analysis manually edited and prepared a presentation.?We distinguish the so-called ?screening? of ?monitoring?: while in the former the entire public network will be searched, the ?monitoring? using crawlers, parsers and access to APIs only certain sources such as forums, Twitter or Facebook traversed.?Through cooperation with data providers ? - Posts bought this also partly be.

The results can then be displayed graphically in the form of statistics.?Such a graph can show, for example, how often their company is mentioned in contrast to the competition on the various social media channels.?In addition, there will be a substantive review.?It appears on the monitor, for example, whether the company discussed positive or negative and what subjects it is associated.

Getting Started

Let?s say Company X is not yet active on the social media channels, and there will also be a variety of reasons not necessarily active.?And still want the company should know what customers think about your own business and consumers online and discuss.

In the first step, the company should use free tools to get a feel for the number and sentiment on the social web.?Most free tools are limited to the monitoring of a platform (Twitter, Facebook, forums, etc.).

For Forum Board Reader and the Google Search discussions are recommended.?Blogs you search still best with the Google Blog Search or example Twingly.?If you want to accumulate the various tools can do so with the tools Yahoo Pipes or Netvibes.?Netvibes has meanwhile also chargeable monitoring.?This provider has the advantage that with a free account from the data reader board are included.

Before companies are active in the social web, it makes sense in any case, the communication with the company and the brand as part of an analysis to evaluate manually.?Knowing the needs and interests of the customers, by the findings of the monitoring may strategies for social media measures are derived.?Where consumers see problems??What is seen as both a strength and what weakness??What consumers employed in the context of products and services and what are the competitors positioned?

Free tools ? Twitter

The Twitter Search provides a search of up to seven days, but at a maximum of 1,500 tweets.?Twitter Crawl includes, however, only data from German users who have registered location information.?For this data is also available retroactively.?Topsy does offer to historical data from Twitter, a search for # crime scene but again, it is clear that the data available are not nearly complete.?Who places particular emphasis on Twitter data should come to grips with the terms ?Twitter Search API?, ?Twitter Streaming API? and Gnip.

Free tools ? Facebook

The Facebook search engines search only public status messages.?In most cases, the communication is not searched at Fanpages.?Then, companies should be strictly followed when choosing suppliers.?Typically, the observed Fanpages be registered for monitoring.

Media observers

Before a long-term monitoring is placed, it is also advisable to carry out an analysis or testing for monitoring.?In a small communication volume, the company with this free tool, Google Alerts or free services from paid providers do (for example, the Community Report Netbreeze) independently.?For companies with a large volume of communication, it makes sense to perform this phase in cooperation with the media observers, the PR agency or a full-service monitoring provider, as these firms advise the company in this area very well and run in the right direction can.

Full-service provider

Full-service monitoring vendors have the advantage that they are usually on the?social media?have specialized communication and offer not only the analysis and monitoring as well as consulting services in this area. Take recommendations and strategies based on the analysis and assist companies in the marketing activities on the social web.

If a long-term monitoring will be built and are competence and capacity within the company already exists, the company can also contact a technology provider.?In this case, the company should make in advance of the content and requirements for the monitoring of thoughts.?Important example is the question of which financial resources.Should also be made clear whether the involvement of the dashboard is required in other systems (CRM keyword).?Other questions are: How many people are expected to work with the tool??Acquire the company wants only contributions to your company or to the competition, or a particular subject area are analyzed with?

Tools for campaign evaluation

A monitoring without further processing of the results and findings is meaningless.Therefore, for every company, the question of what happens with the gained insights.?The contents of the monitoring should be processed in the form of reporting and the employees and managers in the company made available to be involved in future decisions as to knowledge.?If a company is already active in the social web, a written transcript of their activities is essential.

Conclusion

Despite these numerous vendors and tools, there are still a lot of potential in terms of business models in social media analysis and evaluation of own channels.?And so the market for monitoring providers continues to grow.

More and more upstarts advertise with various promises to convince potential customers of their own tool.?Statements regarding the database are to enjoy but generally with caution.?Statements like ?We are watching the entire Internet? are not credible, because the entire social web observed no party, not even Google.?Companies already know relevant platforms of their industries should specifically ask the provider for these sources or on the exact costs to integrate these pages.

Regarding the source cover many tools gladly keep covered.?Before companies approach a provider, you should create a list of criteria.?What the company wants to use the results of the monitoring??If the monitoring of an external service provider or by internal resources to be implemented??Which costs budget (setup, monthly fees) is available?Since many companies are overwhelmed at the beginning with this issue, it is helpful to the supervising agency as external consultant to integrate.?Before companies make a final decision on a provider that they should look ahead in any case, different tools.

Source: http://techbu.com/2012/10/30/social-media-monitoring-tools-and-services-overview

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Smith's 'fantastic game' helps 49ers carve up Cards

Quarterback completes 18 of 19 and defense stones Arizona for 24-3 victory

Image: The 49ers' Michael CrabtreeGetty Images

The 49ers' Michael Crabtree avoids the Cardinals' William Gay on Monday night in Glendale, Ariz.

updated 11:32 p.m. ET Oct. 29, 2012

GLENDALE, Ariz. - Three touchdown passes, one incomplete pass.

Not a bad night for Alex Smith, and it could have been better, considering that the one incomplete pass was dropped by a wide-open receiver.

The San Francisco quarterback completed 18 of 19 passes for 232 yards and three touchdowns ? two to Michael Crabtree and one to Randy Moss ? to help San Francisco flatten the Arizona Cardinals 24-3 on Monday night.

"Eighteen of 19, I have never seen that," 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh said. "How important for your quarterback to play very well? It is very important and I don't know how you play much better. It was a fantastic game by him."

Arizona defensive tackle Darnell Dockett could hardly believe what Smith had done.

"Everyone's surprised. My 5-year-old son's surprised," Dockett said, "but at the end of the day it wasn't like he had to make the long perfect throws. He had some guys open and we missed some tackles and they made plays."

Smith said he had no idea his stats were that good.

"Which is a good thing," he said. "I don't want to think about my stats or incompletions or anything like that. I was kind of in a good rhythm, the whole offense was. "

Smith has withstood more than his share of criticism he was the No. 1 overall pick in the draft in 2005. He was not interested in calling this a statement performance.

"At this point I don't care," he said. "if you ask me a few years ago, yeah maybe, but at this point I don't really care. I am concerned about winning. The guys in the locker room know what I am about and that is what really matters."

As for reports he had lost his confidence, Smith said, "It was in my closet. I found it."

Smith was 14 of 15 for 146 yards and two touchdowns, both to Crabtree, as the 49ers built a 17-0 halftime lead.

Moss caught a 47-yard TD pass, dodging tacklers down the sideline on a play that seemed to turn back the clock to the receiver's prime. With the catch, he tied Terrell Owens for fourth on the NFL career touchdown list with 156.

Smith, who tied a career high with the three touchdown passes, spread out his completions to 10 receivers. Crabtree led the way with five catches for 72 yards.

Arizona's defense, supposed to be the team's strength, missed tackle after tackle in an embarrassing nationally televised performance at home. The 24 points were the most allowed by the Cardinals this season.

"This was a big test for us, and everyone saw how it went," Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt said. "It was disappointing to say the least."

Quarterback John Skelton called the loss "embarrassing" and "humiliating."

Led by Smith's near-perfect precision passing, the 49ers methodically dominated from the start. He had the best completion percentage of his career, and he would have been perfect had Delanie Walker not dropped the ball when he was wide open on a crossing route in the first half.

A 10-play, 77-yard drive that consumed just over 6 minutes of the first quarter put San Francisco up 7-0. On third-and-goal from the 3, Smith threw a sidelines pass to Crabtree, who outfought Patrick Peterson for the ball and the touchdown.

A flurry missed tackles, most notably an open-field whiff by Sam Acho, helped Ted Ginn Jr. return a punt 35 yards to the Arizona 45 in the second quarter. Daryl Washington sacked Smith to help set up a third-and-23 from the Arizona 46. But Smith found Crabtree over the middle for 22 yards, just a yard shy of the first down. David Akers' 43 yard field goal made it 10-0 with 5:58 left in the half.

Crabtree beat Peterson again for San Francisco's second touchdown. Smith threw over the middle to the receiver, who caught the ball, then fooled Peterson with an inside move into the end zone to make it 17-0 with 1:41 left in the half. The 49ers drove 68 yards in eight plays, again overcoming a sack, this one by Calais Campbell, that made it second-and-goal from the 16. Smith threw 7 yards to Mario Manningham to set up the TD toss to Crabtree.

The Cardinals were booed off the field by the home crowd at the half.

Things didn't get any better for the home team in the third quarter. On third-and-9, Smith threw 30 yards to Crabtree, who evaded a host of tacklers. Then on third-and-8, Smith tossed a short pass to Moss, who sidestepped a series of would-be defenders all the way to the end zone, putting San Francisco ahead 24-0 with 7:27 left in the third quarter.

The Cardinals averted a shutout with Jay Feely's 28-yard field goal

John Skelton, making his second start since Kevin Kolb went down with rib injuries, completed 32 of 52 passes for 290 yards, often overthrowing receivers. The Cardinals rushed for just 7 yards in nine attempts against the 49ers, who entered the game as the No. 1-ranked defense in the NFL, No. 2 against the run.

Arizona's final possession ended when Larry Fitzgerald was stopped at the 1.

Notes: The roof was open at University of Phoenix Stadium, a rarity for Cardinals games. ... San Francisco C Daniel Kilgore left the game in the first quarter with a concussion. ... Washington had two sacks, giving him eight for the season. ... In its two nationally televised night appearances this season, against St. Louis on a Thursday and San Francisco on Monday, Arizona was outscored 41-6. ... The 49ers improved to 3-1 on the road, winning their last two away from home by a combined 55-3. ... Only Jerry Rice (208), Emmitt Smith (175) and LaDainian Tomlinson (162) have more touchdowns than Moss. ... Justin Smith had two of San Francisco's four sacks. ... The 49ers have a bye this week. The Cardinals are at Green Bay on Sunday.

? 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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Good luck to rest of NFC West

PFT: 49ers' demolition of Cardinals gives them firm control of division thanks to that dominant defense and an ever-improving offense.

Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/49604274/ns/sports-nfl/

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NYC schools, transit to close ahead of storm

NEW YORK (AP) ? New York City shut down its mass transit system, closed its schools and ordered hundreds of thousands of people to flee their homes Sunday in the face of increasingly dire predictions about the wall of water that could hit the nation's largest city as part of the superstorm bearing down on the East Coast.

A seawater surge of anywhere from 6 to 11 feet threatened to swamp parts of lower Manhattan, flood subway tunnels and knock out the underground network of power, phone and high-speed Internet lines that are the lifeblood of America's financial capital.

Metropolitan Transportation Authority spokesman Charles Seaton said the process of suspending subway service began at 7 p.m. Sunday. Suspension of bus service is to begin at 9 p.m.

While the New York Stock Exchange will close its trading floor, Big Board trading will continue electronically.

The United Nations announced plans to close on Monday and canceled all meetings at its headquarters.

After days of seeming to take the storm in stride, New Yorkers packed grocery stores for supplies and scrambled to get out of flood zones.

Clutching a white pillow in her left hand and two computers in another, Alyssa Marks rushed to get to the subway before it stopped running Sunday evening.

As she hurried to leave her apartment in a lower Manhattan evacuation zone for a friend's place on higher ground, she'd gotten cash but had not time to get toiletries and water.

"I'm nervous, but I'm also excited," she said as she left her apartment. "We're going to get some wine, cuddle up and watch movies."

Still, some hardy residents said they weren't going anywhere, even as the mayor urged them to go.

"If you don't evacuate, you're not just putting your own life in danger ? you are also endangering the lives of our first responders who may have to come in and rescue you," Mayor Michael Bloomberg said at a news conference Sunday as he announced a mandatory evacuation affecting 375,000 people in low-lying areas from the beaches of Queens to the glassy high-rises of Battery Park City. "This is a serious and dangerous storm."

After days of more modest warnings, the tone grew sharper Sunday as the National Hurricane Center predicted "life-threatening flooding" for areas including New York Harbor. Louis Uccellini, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's environmental protection chief, called the projected storm surge "the worst-case scenario" for New York City, Long Island and northern New Jersey.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo deployed National Guard troops to the city and Long Island as President Barack Obama signed an emergency declaration enabling the federal government to provide support and resources to state and local governments.

Consolidated Edison weighed the possibility of shutting down power in parts of lower Manhattan to protect equipment. Broadway shows were canceled for Sunday and Monday. One small hospital was being evacuated, while several others were moving patients to higher floors.

America's biggest public school system, which serves 1.1 million students, was ordered closed Monday, while many of the schools opened Sunday as emergency shelters.

Ralph Gorham watched the sea get rough, but he planned to weather the storm at the Red Hook Lobster Pound, the seafood business he co-owns in a low-lying part of Brooklyn.

"I'm not leaving. My house is here. My business is here," he said. "When the bell tolls, you live with it."

The megastorm ? a predicted combination of Hurricane Sandy, a wintry system moving in from the west and cold air streaming down from the Arctic ? marked the second time in 14 months that New York City has faced a scenario forecasters have long feared: a big hurricane hitting the city or a bit south, such that the cyclone's counterclockwise winds drive water into miles of densely populated shoreline.

Hurricane Irene ultimately came ashore as a tropical storm in Coney Island, with a four-foot storm surge that washed over parts of the southern tip of Manhattan but didn't wreak the havoc that officials had feared, although it caused tremendous damage elsewhere. Some experts have said that a surge three feet higher could have caused huge damage.

The deluge from the approaching superstorm may well be worse than Irene's ? and longer lasting, forecasters said. Bloomberg warned that damaging flooding could start with high tide Sunday night and continue into Tuesday afternoon.

With the worst of the surge expected Monday night, the key factor is whether it coincides with the higher-than-usual full moon high tide, said Klaus Jacob, a Columbia University researcher who has advised the city on coastal risks. But in any case, he said he expected the subway system to be at least partially flooded.

"I do not think that there's enough emergency measures that will help prevent the subway from flooding," Jacob said.

Bloomberg announced evacuations at about 11:30 a.m., telling people to be out just 7? hours later. The city was alerting residents with cellphone emergency warning systems, its own Notify NYC system of emails and phone calls, and police cars going down streets with bullhorns.

To those who refused to leave, Bloomberg had a message.

"They won't be arrested. But I would argue they are being very selfish," said the mayor, noting rescue crews will still try to help them if they are flooded. "We aren't going to leave them to die. We are going to save them."

___

Associated Press writers Verena Dobnik and Deepti Hajela in New York and Seth Borenstein in Kensington, Md., contributed to this report.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/nyc-schools-transit-close-ahead-storm-162139225--finance.html

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